Building an International Architecture for Managing Global Threats

The changing types, dimensions and dynamics of crisis threats are forecast to increase over the next decade – in some instances, exponentially. These threats will have growing global consequences in an increasingly interdependent world order. Yet, there is a lack of international systems and procedures that can consistently and effectively identify, monitor and, where necessary, mitigate the impacts of threats such as cyber systems collapse, global indebtedness, mass displacement, bioengineered pandemics and the multiple consequences of climate change.

The route towards achieving effective systems and procedures cannot, however, rely solely on the institutions that comprise the familiar multilateral construct, reflecting the ‘post-war world order’. There is growing support for the idea that states are ‘overloaded’ and increasingly unable to deal with some of the most serious global hazards that will need to be confronted, now and in the longer term.

The traditional multilateral construct may increasingly lack the capacities for dealing with such complex problems. Even in some of the richest states there are signs that opaque, drawn-out processes combined with contending bureaucratic interests all too often reflect pervasive dysfunctionalities.

There are myriad international and global non-state and multisectoral institutions and networks, from the GAVI Vaccine Alliance to the International Science Council. These organisations guide states, compensate for their failings and further support them. In that sense, they fall naturally into a governance paradigm deemed to be polylateral.

To see how best to anticipate, monitor and mitigate the growing number of global threats, new approaches, arrangements and constructs will be required. What these may be needs to be carefully assessed and explored – including how to move from the multilateral to the polylateral.

This paper proposes six steps to achieve these objectives.